column:weekly monmon talk
[44] "Manifest Destiny 1.0"
1. "The Fate Pounds On The Door."
- When Beethoven Meets Knock-Knock Jokes -
♪Ja ja ja ja–n ♪ Ja ja ja ja–n... What a corny beginning! And yet, in Japan the melody is almost always introduced as Beethoven’s “Fate” Symphony. Elsewhere, it’s simply Symphony No. 5. True, one of Beethoven’s students once claimed the master described it as “fate knocking at the door.” But who can really say what Beethoven himself thought, or what he felt as those pounding chords thundered through his mind?
But is there really such a thing as fate? What do we mean when we say, “This is destiny,” or “a fateful meeting”? Do we mean it was decided long ago—or that something wildly improbable just happened by chance? In other words: is fate inevitable, or is it coincidence dressed in grander clothes? Do we have the power to change it? Or is free will itself just another illusion?
And if fate comes pounding on your door, what do you do? Do you fling it open with a cheerful, “Welcome”? Or do you brace yourself and demand, “Who’s there?” But when you realize it’s destiny—and you’re convinced it’s your manifest destiny—how do you respond? What thoughts race through your mind? What feelings surge in your chest?
- Sometimes destiny is just opportunity wearing louder shoes. -
2. "Manifest Destiny"
- God’s Will, or Just Good PR? -
For Columbus, who had read Marco Polo’s tales of golden Zipangu, it must have felt like fate when the Reconquista finally ended after eight long centuries. In January of 1492, with the fall of the Alhambra, Spain stood triumphant—and Europe stood poised on the edge of a new age. Looking back now, though, it feels less like triumph and more like tragedy: the moment when Europe’s global conquest was set in motion.
And can we blame them for calling it God’s will—for clothing their ambition in the lofty words of Manifest Destiny? After all, as the saying goes, “Let he who is without sin cast the first stone.” But how do we reconcile the faith and fervor with the blood and ruin—the destruction, the looting, the slaughter? Would it truly have been different if the roles of conqueror and conquered had been reversed? That ultimate clash of civilizations carried on into the 20th century, and though some temporary resolution may have been reached, yet the same old question lingers:
What is “good,” and what is “evil”? How many “good intentions” have paved humanity’s road to hell? The line between good and evil matters—desperately so. But if you seek goodness only in yourself, refusing to forgive the flaws in others, you risk falling into the very same trap: the dangerous certainty that your actions alone are guided by your own “Manifest Destiny.”
- Every empire’s prayer comes with blood on the page. -
３. "Rival of Fate"
- When History Turns Into a Shonen Manga -
Amuro and Char. Naruto and Sasuke. Joe and Rikiishi. Sakuragi and Rukawa. Even Senna and Prost, Messi and Ronaldo... Were these rivalries mere coincidence—talented figures meeting on the same stage at the same time? Or were they destined encounters, bound by unseen threads of karma from other lives, each forced to climb higher only by confronting the other? Each one, at once, a wall and a mirror.
So too with nations. From today’s vantage point, it feels like the non-Western world falling prey to Europe’s great powers was the inevitable fate of history. But what if Charles Martel had not stood at Tours–Poitiers in the 8th century, holding back the armies of Islam? What if Ögedei Khan had not died suddenly in the 13th century, halting the Mongols’ westward surge after the Battle of Legnica (Wahlstatt)—where the Teutonic Knights were crushed? Without those strokes of chance, Europe might well have been swallowed by a different destiny.
After the Roman Empire’s fall, it seemed certain that Europe would be conquered—first by Islam, then perhaps by the Mongols. Yet again and again, fate tilted their way, through events that must have felt miraculous. Would even Europeans themselves have called it a “divine wind”—their own kamikaze? Are victories and defeats between rivals determined by grand destiny, or by nothing more than the faint flap of a butterfly’s wings at the right—or wrong—moment?
- Maybe rivals aren’t written by fate—they just make fate worth writing. -
4. “Manifest Destiny” (Reconsidered)
- Shukumei versus Unmei: Lost in Translation -
So then—can fate truly be changed, by chance events or by the stubborn will to forge your own path? In Japanese we distinguish between shukumei (an inescapable fate) and unmei (a more fluid destiny). But in English, both collapse into a single word: destiny or fate. The concepts themselves are built differently. Language is a system of values, and reflection is made possible by concepts. So then, how do they conceptualize and perceive “destiny”?
For them, it is the will of God: at once a fixed fate and a chosen path. Under Calvin’s doctrine of predestination, destiny was absolute. There was no room for inner doubt, no need for hesitation. In 19th-century America, as the nation crossed the frontier, expanded its borders, bought Louisiana, and moved toward the annexation of Texas, it was inevitable that the idea of Manifest Destiny would arise.
Yes—it was an argument dressed in reason. Or perhaps reason itself was simply emotion, cooled into logic. Modern individuals wield their theories like armor, wrapping intellect around passion. That, in the end, is the modern ego: the self, by the self, for the self. A creature who crafts a narrative of purpose and convinces itself that its own path is destiny—its own “manifest destiny.”
- Sometimes destiny is just self-help with better branding. -
5. “The Ironies of Fate”
- World Wars: History’s Encore Performance -
The two world wars of the 20th century were, in a sense, inevitable. They were the final showdown of European imperialism—a collision born of centuries of explosive expansion since the Age of Discovery, of nations scrambling for colonies, of empires pushed to their limits. Communist Russia, born (or so it seemed) from criticism of imperialism, added a confusing twist to the picture. But Europe itself was already on a collision course, rushing headlong toward disaster. The clash came, and Europe never recovered. “Ironies of fate,” indeed. Or should we call it Manifest Destiny?
In both world wars, the United States at first wanted no part of it—or at least the American public didn’t. And yet, when it came to Japan, things were different. What, really, was that “war with America” about? What drove the U.S. so far, so fast? Look closely and you’ll see the lingering force of Manifest Destiny. The annexation of Hawaii, the war with Spain, the capture of the Philippines—all of that had happened less than half a century earlier. There was an ideology at work here, both rational and emotional, a philosophy that justified action: Manifest Destiny.
Japan, by contrast? The “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.” But what was that—just an economic bloc? The philosophies couldn’t have been more different. If Japan had merely defended itself, that would have been one thing. But to go on the offensive? To launch a war? Europe’s “world of complexity and mystery” had nothing on Japan’s contradictions. Which leaves us with the final question: was that war really inevitable?
- History’s irony: yesterday’s destiny always looks like today’s bad decision. -
6. “Fate Written as Destiny”
- From Beethoven to Bombs -
In the Second World War, America’s first enemy was not Japan but Germany. Even the atomic bomb, that terrible invention, was developed first and foremost with Germany in mind. This, too, was the continuation of a story that had begun in the First World War: the story of America as “the guardian of democracy.” After the hesitation of refusing to join the League of Nations, the United States finally stepped forward—into the very core of Manifest Destiny. Reason now gave shape to emotion; ideology justified conviction. It was, one might say, the destined meaning of America’s birth, the very fate written into its founding.
Now, in the 21st century, the scene looks different: terrorism, refugees, a seemingly chaotic world. Yet behind the noise, are we once again watching history line up on a collision course? Is a great U.S.–China confrontation inevitable? Will the clash come between two versions of Manifest Destiny—“democracy” on one side, “the Sinocentric order” on the other? Or might some fateful accident allow us to avoid it? Inevitably, one day, the goddess of fate will knock at the door. And when the door opens, who—or what—will be standing there? The melody of destiny will resound… ♪ Da-da-da-DUM…
And here, Beethoven’s Symphony No. 5 returns. I still remember the fall of 2005, in NHK Hall, when Seiji Ozawa led the NHK Symphony in the “Concert for Children.” Perhaps never before, nor since, has the Fifth sounded so alive. Before the children, Ozawa surely raised his baton as though entrusted with a “manifest destiny” of his own—conducting the fateful motif of Fate itself.
- Every age hears Beethoven differently—but the knocking never stops. -
7. “Epilogue as Monologue”
- When What-Ifs Outlive Empires -
“Man’s life of fifty years, compared with the age of heaven and earth, is but a fleeting dream.” If Oda Nobunaga had lived beyond the sixteenth century, what might Japan’s fate have been? With the Japanese towns spread across Southeast Asia as footholds, would he have thrust Japan into the colonial wars against the rising Western powers? If, instead of Hideyoshi’s coalition of lords, Nobunaga himself had built a true centralized state with his own authority at the center, would Japan have marched early into the Ming Empire, toppling it before anyone else?
And then, what would Japan look like today? In reality, history took another course: the Jurchen leader Nurhaci rose, brought down the Ming, and founded the Qing dynasty. By the eighteenth century, the Qing would preside over the largest empire in China’s long history, flourishing in power and scope. Yet today, his homeland—once Manchuria—lives on only as “the Northeast” of the People’s Republic of China. No one speaks the Jurchen tongue.
The smile of the goddess of fate is never without sorrow. Fate—what is it, really? The motif of destiny echoes once more… ♪ Da-da-da-DUM…♪ -the fateful chords resound again...and again...-
- History is a duet: fate sets the score, but we play the notes. -
-Von Herzen – Möge es wieder – zu Herzen gehn!-
-From the heart – may it return – to the heart!-
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